A group of researchers from NOVA National School of Public Health (ENSP NOVA) released the results of a study that points out that, in a month, 1.255 more people died than was expected. Researchers Alexandre Abrantes, André Vieira, Pedro Aguiar, and Vasco Ricoca, from the Public Health Research Center at ENSP NOVA, point out that 49% of the estimated excess of deaths were registered as COVID-19, with another 51% attributed to other pathologies.
Learn more about this study below.
ENSP NOVA has been monitoring the national situation of COVID-19 in different aspects, namely, through the COVID-19 Barometer, a research project that aims to contribute in time to the challenges that this global pandemic imposes on us.
Abstract
One month after the first COVID-19 infection was recorded, Portugal counts 18 051 cases and 599 deaths from COVID-19, that is to say a cumulative incidence of 176 cases per 100 000 inhabitants and a 3.3% lethality rate. Between March 16 and April 14, there was an excess of 1,255 deaths, compared to the nº expected deaths, calculated on the basis of the mean daily mortality in the past 10 years. The number of daily deaths often surpassed the limit of the average nº of deaths in the past 10 years plus two standard deviations. The excess mortality affected disproportionately people aged 75+. 1 030 of the access deaths affected people aged 75+ and only 64 of such deaths affected people aged 65 - 74. Forty nine percent (49%) of the estimated excess deaths were registered as COVID-19. The remaining 51% were classified as other natural causes. During the study period the number of deaths caused by injuries (includes traffic accidents) was well below the expected, on the basis of the average number of deaths over the past 10 years. This reduction may be due to the sever limitation of mobility imposed by the Authorities. During the second week of April 2020, the number of COVID-19 deaths started to decrease in a sustained way and the excess mortality almost disappears.
This study calculates the excess mortality registered in Portugal from of March 16 until April 14, on the basis of the daily deaths registered in the past 10 years. The study compares the observed and expected number of deaths observed in the past 10 years, plus 2 standard deviations. An ARIMA model was also tested to validate the estimated number of deaths during the study period.
Read the article.
News articles (in Portuguese)
TVI 24 - Portugal registou mais 1.255 óbitos do que o expectável um mês após a primeira morte por Covid-19
Sol - Num mês morreram mais 1255 pessoas do que seria esperado
SIC Notícias - Número de mortes por COVID-19 em Portugal pode estar subestimado
Rádio Renascença - Portugal regista mais 1.255 óbitos do que o expectável um mês após a primeira morte por Covid-19
i - Num mês morreram mais 1255 pessoas do que seria esperado
Executive Digest - Morreram mais 1255 pessoas do que esperado desde o início da Covid-19 em Portugal